1Introduction
9Chapter Seven. Scenario Ranges for Tough Calls
2Prologue. Beyond the Fog of Certainty
10Chapter Eight. Briefing by Probabilities
3Chapter One. The Cost of Certainty Theater
11Chapter Nine. Cleaner Meetings Through Odds
4Chapter Two. Embracing Base Rates
12Chapter Ten. Building a Truth-Prizing Culture
5Chapter Three. Calibrating Your Odds
13Chapter Eleven. Learning Faster Than Rivals
